15,524 students left school in 2008, Reports shed light, explore new pathways to reduce dropout rate

Reducing the high school dropout rate in Colorado has long been a goal of the Bell Policy Center, and we're gratified to see the attention this issue has recently been getting both in our state and nationally.

Four new reports shed light on the dropout problem, and they point the way toward potential approaches to addressing it. And a fifth report quantifies the economic benefits of cutting the dropout rate in half, both for the new graduates and for society.

Across Colorado, 15,524 students dropped out of school in 2008. Gov. Bill Ritter has made it one of his administration's key education policy goals -- cutting the state's dropout rate in half by 2017.

When students stay in school, they are more likely to seek higher education. The benefits are obvious for the individual -- higher earnings and greater self-sufficiency -- but a more vibrant and healthy society is created, too.

And let's not forget, a well-educated citizenry and workforce is the foundation for a strong and competitive economy.

Three recent reports conducted in conjunction with the Colorado Graduates Initiative focus on our state. They look at who is dropping out and why.

The first, Advancing the "Colorado Graduates" Agenda, identifies three early warning indicators for students at risk of dropping out of school: (1) failure in one or more semester classes, (2) behavior issues resulting in suspension, and (3) chronic absenteeism. These warning signs often show up in the middle school years. The report also contains recommendations for an integrated dropout prevention framework that consists of an early warning system and tiered interventions.

The other two reports focus on gender and geography as they relate to Colorado's dropout rates.

The report on gender suggests that the early warning signals identified above may not capture some of the girls who are dropping out of school. For example, girls are more likely than boys to drop out of school because of life events such as pregnancy and care-giving responsibilities. The report explains that "girls drift away from the school setting, and since they do not make trouble or assert themselves, no one notices. Boys act out their frustrations, and are then . . . disciplined (suspensions and expulsions) and ultimately pushed out of school altogether."

The third Colorado Graduates report looks at the dropout experiences in Colorado's rural school districts and the lessons that can be learned from them. Overall, the report notes that Colorado's rural schools have the lowest dropout rates and the highest graduation rates. Rural school districts with the lowest dropout rates tend to have more stable families, extra support for struggling students, and more student engagement in extracurricular activities than districts with higher dropout rates.

Another study looks at dropouts from a national perspective. Achieving Graduation for All, prepared by the National Governors' Association of Best Practices, provides national data on dropout rates and consequences, reasons students drop out, and strategies to reduce the number of dropouts.

Finally, research by the Alliance for Excellent Education suggests that nationwide, $4.1 billion in additional wages and $536 million in additional tax revenues could be generated if the dropout rate were cut in half in the country's fifty largest metro areas -- including Denver and Colorado Springs. For example, in an average year,

• Denver's 4,385 additional high school graduates would earn $69 million more than their likely earnings without a diploma. They would also generate $8 million more in state and local taxes as the result of increased spending and higher salaries.
• Colorado Springs' 1,044 additional graduates would earn $16 million more and generate nearly $2 million in increased tax revenues.

We're pleased to have these additions to the research, and we will make use of them as we work toward the goal of reducing Colorado's dropout rate.